Welcome to our October 2026 Viewpoints, a monthly bulletin from PDS Planning to our valued clients and friends. Our goal with each issue of Viewpoints is to provide you with a wide variety of perspectives on life and wealth. Feel free to share with others.
Markets and (Midterm) Election Years
Election day is fast approaching and the commercials and texts, and phone calls have continued at what feels to me like a frantic pace. Whoever comes out ahead remains to be seen, but it doesn’t stop us from trying to guess what might happen once it’s all over. These first two points will take a closer look at investment returns in various scenarios around elections.
Average Election Year Returns
Midterm elections can impact markets with greater volatility and more muted returns early in the year. However, as seen in the chart below by tracking the blue line and according to Russell Investments, “once the results are known, that clarity often gives investors the confidence to step back into markets, driving a rally irrespective of which party wins.”.
Control has Little Impact
The quote from Russell above ended noting that markets have historically rebounded regardless of the winning party. The chart below from Capital Group agrees and expands on the idea further. Since 1933, the S&P 500 has averaged double digit returns regardless of the power structure in congress. Whether they’re unified or split, markets tend to prevail. It’s also important to remember that averages consist of highs and lows. The chart below is no guarantee this year will follow the average path.
I’ll Take PTO for $1 Billion
The long-awaited Grand Theft Auto 6 [GTA VI] comes out on November 19th. HR data has shown a spike in time-off request for that date and early estimates point to 1.5 million US workers expected to take the day off. An economics professor in Spain has projected this nationwide ‘sick day’ could cost the US $1 billion in lost productivity! But it’s nothing to be concerned about; workers using PTO or just shifting their tasks around won’t permanently shrink GDP
Halloween Candy!
The map below shows each state’s most popular Halloween candy with data from Instacart. Surprising absolutely no one, Reese’s are the most common standout showing up as the favorite across 7 states. Surprising absolutely everyone, CANDY CORN? As much as I like eating what I think candles taste like, Colorado and Wyoming need to step it up.
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