Welcome to our October 2025 Viewpoints, a monthly bulletin from PDS Planning to our valued clients and friends. Our goal with each issue of Viewpoints is to provide you with a wide variety of perspectives on life and wealth. Feel free to share with others.
Global Yields Rising
A popular and important talking point so far this year has been the declining value of the US Dollar. The decline has led to international stocks outpacing the US by a wide margin in 2025.
The chart below could indicate a continuation of the current trend as bond yields across Europe and Asia rise. Why? First, currency expectations are extremely difficult to predict due to the vast amount of data changing day to day, country to country. Pinning a rise or fall on any single factor isn’t realistic. However, the big picture is more clear in hindsight. As yields across the globe have risen while yields in the US have fallen, more money is being invested in European and Asian markets compared to the US. This is just one of the many potential reasons why the dollar may continue to fall in value.
Government Shutdowns and the Stock Market
Investing in equity markets is a historically effective long-term strategy for growth. Government shutdowns are a historically short-term event that has little to no impact on market returns. The chart below charts the price of the S&P 500 since 1980 with all the government shutdown and their length noted in the vertically dashed lines. The trend is your friend, and the trend is up! The government shutting down is important and meaningful, just not as much to US equity markets as you might think.
Bond Returns Return to Normal
After back to back losing years for bonds, returns appear to be back to normal and more in line with expectations. Interest rates and bonds prices have an inverse relationship – when rates fall (now) bond prices go up (also now). As the Federal Open Market Committee has voted to cut interest rates, yields have subsequently fallen while existing bond prices have increased. In the US Aggregate bond markets case, to the tune of 7% year-to-date. 2021 puts a serious damper on 5+ year annual returns for bonds, but we believe they still play an important role in a diversified portfolio.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION: Please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by PDS Planning, Inc. [“PDS”]), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from PDS. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. PDS is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the PDS’ current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request or at www.pdsplanning.com. Please Note: PDS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to PDS’ web site or blog or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please Remember: If you are a PDS client, please contact PDS, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Unless, and until, you notify us, in writing, to the contrary, we shall continue to provide services as we do currently. Please Also Remember to advise us if you have not been receiving account statements (at least quarterly) from the account custodian.
