Two topics are dominating market conversations right now: energy prices and the long-awaited SpaceX IPO. We’ll start with energy, since it’s making its presence known in inflation data and at the pump.
The conflict in Iran is now entering its fourth month, and ceasefire talks have not made meaningful progress. That matters because of one geographic chokepoint: the Strait of Hormuz. A significant amount of the world’s oil passes through the narrow waterway and the ongoing conflict has made normal shipping traffic difficult. Damage to Iran’s energy infrastructure has compounded the problem.
At the start of 2026, oil was around $60 a barrel. Since March, it has been running between $85 and $100. The sequence of events went roughly like this: when the conflict broke out, oil markets priced in the risk immediately and pushed prices higher. Then, as traffic through the Strait slowed, the actual supply reduction caught up with those early concerns. Prices didn’t just spike but instead stayed elevated. Sustained high energy prices become an inflation problem in a way that a brief spike does not.
The chart above illustrates this clearly. Each colored segment represents a different contributor to year-over-year CPI inflation. The green portions are energy. Notice how muted the green was from mid-2023 through most of 2025. Energy was actually subtracting from inflation at certain points. The pickup you see on the right side of the chart reflects what’s happened since March. Headline CPI has moved from 2.3% in April 2025 to 4.2% as of May 2026, and energy is contributing meaningfully to that rise.
The other topic consuming financial media this week is the SpaceX IPO, which begins trading today, June 12th. It is hard to overstate how anticipated this one has been. By many measures it ranks among the largest and most hyped public offerings in history.
The enthusiasm is real, but enthusiasm has a way of inflating valuations beyond what the underlying fundamentals support. SpaceX is a remarkable company, but whether the IPO price reflects a remarkable company or a remarkable amount of excitement is a fair question to ask.
IPOs are historically volatile in early trading, and we expect this one to follow that pattern. Several major indexes, including the Russell and Nasdaq, have shortened their normal inclusion eligibility requirements specifically to accommodate SpaceX. When indexes bend their own rules, the automatic buying that comes with index inclusion hits faster than usual, which adds fuel to what is already likely to be a turbulent first few days or week of trading.
There is an old saying that feels appropriate here: the early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese. Clients asking whether to buy in immediately should weigh that one carefully.
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