Volatility remains in vogue to begin the month of April. The war in Iran continues to change shape with the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz just underway after peace talks fell through. And by the time you read this, it may already be old news. Traders are watching every headline, trying to determine what it means for futures and whether they need to buy or sell. It has felt like one of the most hectic years for the market in recent memory. But before drawing that conclusion, it pays to check your recency bias at the door and remember the importance of perspective.
One Year Ago — April 13th, 2025
Tariffs were in full swing following the April 2nd “Liberation Day” announcement. Within a week they were paused for negotiations, but not before the 10% baseline floor took hold across nearly every trading partner. The consensus view was grim: persistent upward pressure on inflation, rising business expenses, and a squeeze on both consumers and suppliers. The S&P 500 is down roughly -10% on the year. It would go on to finish the year up +16.65%.
Today — April 13th, 2026
The United States is now directly engaged in a war with Iran that carries potentially long-lasting consequences for energy prices, inflation, and U.S. budget priorities. Oil prices swung from $70 to $120 and back to $100 a barrel in the span of a single month. Europe, China, and Russia are beginning to feel the supply shock created by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Ceasefire agreements have been proposed, agreed to, and promptly fell through. Will the market recover? If so, how!? The S&P 500 is down just -1% year to date.
In hindsight, things have a way of coming into focus. In 2025, tariffs ultimately proved less severe than feared, inflation ticked up only modestly, and the market rewarded those who stayed the course. Even 2022, when both stocks and bonds fell together, makes sense in retrospect. The fastest Fed tightening cycle in decades collided with pandemic-era excess. What followed were three consecutive years of gains: +24%, +24%, and +16.65%. The difficult years happened. So did the recoveries.
The Chart Above Tells the Story
The seasonal chart above plots the S&P 500’s year-to-date performance for each of the past several years. Notice where 2026 (blue line) sits right now, just below zero. Then look at where those same lines ultimately traveled by December.
This is the nature of markets: bad news arrives suddenly, forcefully, and without warning. It resets expectations overnight and sends headlines into a frenzy. Good news, by contrast, tends to be quiet. It’s the slow accumulation of corporate earnings, innovation, and resilience that doesn’t announce itself. It accrues, day after day, until you look up at year-end and realize the worst moments of the year are barely visible on the chart.
The only year on this chart that ended in significantly negative territory was 2022. A historically unusual year in which rising interest rates punished both stocks and bonds simultaneously. Even then, the investors who stayed the course were rewarded in each of the three years that followed.
It is difficult to maintain perspective when geopolitical crises are unfolding in real time and the financial media is calibrated to amplify every swing. That difficulty is not a character flaw, just a human response. But it’s why having a long-term financial plan matters. A plan doesn’t eliminate volatility. It gives you something sturdy to stand on while the volatility passes.
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